According to a report by the U.S. Energy Information
Administration, the reduction of sulphur content in marine fuels from the
previous limit of 3.5%, established in 2012, to 0.5% as of 2020, already saw
the shipping and refining industries start making preparations and investments
to varying degrees to accommodate IMO 2020 regulations.
As the implementation date for the sulfur cap approaches,
the EIA expects that shifts in petroleum product pricing may begin as early as
The effects on petroleum prices are expected to be most
acute in 2020, but would be moderate after that. However, the regulations would
affect petroleum supply, demand, and trade flows on a more long-term basis, EIA
Because IMO 2020 will affect petroleum markets across
several years, EIA’s STEO forecast and AEO2019 projections provide
complementary insights into the effects of the regulations.
EIA released a report on the matter, explaining the findings
related to IMO 2020 from the STEO and AEO2019 analysis, as well as the
uncertainties that might affect the way that actual outcomes deviate from EIA’s
forecasts and projections.